Methods for modeling the processes of management of herd behavior in social and economic systems

S. S. Turlakova

Abstract


The relevance of identifying and generalizing patterns and features of modeling methods for managing herd behavior in social and economic systems is determined. The analysis of methods of modeling the management of herd behavior in economic systems is analyzed to select an adequate tool for building models of management of herd.

The models, used for studying the processes of herd behavior in different control systems, have a number of properties that take into account the presence of own (states) agents of "opinions", change of opinions under the influence of other members of management systems, a different significance of some agents’ opinions (influence, trust) for others, the degree of agents’  exposure to influence, the existence of indirect influence, the existence of «opinion leaders», the presence of a threshold of sensitivity to change the others’ opinion. Some of models take into account the localization of groups, the presence of specific social norms, factors of «social correlation», the existence of external factors of influence, avalanche effects (cascades), the activity of agents, the possibility of forming groups and coalitions, incomplete and / or asymmetric awareness of agents, informed agents. It is defined that the models, presented in the framework of distinguished characteristics of simulated control systems, make it possible to fully represent the subject area and describe the agents’ behavior. However, there is no universal model, describing herd behavior in social and economic systems. The use of these models to effectively manage the processes of herd behavior in social and economic systems requires adaptation to the systems, within which they will be used.

For modeling herd behavior in social and economic systems, key parameters are the size of the group, in which agents are functioning, the nature of the control system structure (presence or absence of agent subordination), the nature of agents' decision-making processes (static, dynamic), determinism, and the presence of stochastic components in the structure of agents’ reflexive characteristics that mediate their selection. Given the consideration to abovementioned parameters in the choice of tools for modeling the displaying of herd behavior in social and economic systems will allow to effectively manage the herd within certain parameters of the system. Perspective directions of research are outlined.

 


Keywords


mathematical model, modeling, herd behavior, social and economic system, agent, awareness, reflection, management

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/10.15407/econindustry2020.01.98

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