Adaptation of bank lending and state financial support for the agro-industrial complex to war risks: from resilience to investment recovery (empirical assessment based on author's indicators)

Oleksandr О. Zaiets

Abstract


The study substantiates the theoretical and methodological foundations for adapting bank lending and state financial support for the agricultural sector of Ukraine to war risks. It captures the trends of forming financial prerequisites for the industry's transition from an operational survival model to gradual recovery and the industrialization of agricultural processing. The high solvency and financial endurance of the agricultural sector, which has become an anchor for the entire banking system during the crisis period, are substantiated. The calculated author's coefficient of financial resistance ( =4.39 %) confirms that the level of non-performing loans (NPL) in agribusiness is significantly lower than the benchmarks in manufacturing and trade. The budget leverage multiplier of the state program «Affordable Loans 5–7–9 %» was calculated ( =17.14), proving the high efficiency of budget funds utilization: each 1 UAH of direct government expenditure on interest rate compensation generates over 17 UAH of real private bank capital. Using the security asymmetry coefficient ( =1.91), the spatial deformation and "security migration" of capital flows were quantitatively assessed for the first time, recording an almost twofold gap in lending intensity per hectare between western rear hubs and financially isolated frontline regions. A qualitative shift in the target structure of resource application was established due to the growth of the investment activity coefficient ( =19.75 %) and the processing industrialization credit support index ( =0.74). This confirms that financing processing capacities and long-term renewal of fixed assets in agribusiness is becoming commensurate with the traditional raw material cycle. The generated results justify the need to transition from a universal to a region-centric financial policy of the state with differentiated levels of credit guarantees depending on security zones.


Keywords


agricultural sector, security asymmetry, investment adaptation, credit multiplier, financial resilience, financial support

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/econindustry2026.03.087

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